VaR and ES for linear portfolios with mixture of elliptic distributions risk factors

In this paper, we generalize the Linear VaR method from portfolios with normally distributed risk factors to portfolios with mixture of elliptically distributed ones. We treat both the Expected Shortfall and the Value-at-Risk of such portfolios. Special attention is given to the particular case of a mixture of multivariate t-distributions. This is a part of J. SADEFO-KAMDEM PhD Thesis[12] of the Université de Reims, France . It has been presented at the workshop on modelling and computation in Financial Engineering at Bad Herrenalb, Germany May 6-8, 2003. The author is an associate professor at the Department of mathematics, université d’Evry Val d’Essonne.     

North sea oil: Responses to employment opportunities

Britain's new offshore oil industry might have generated much additional employment especially in the building, manning and supply of rigs. But there was a failure at first to take proper advantage; little was done to train people in new skills. Consequently the oil companies brought in equipment and skilled personnel from abroad. Eventually efforts were made to improve matters and the paper examines the steps taken to bring more of the employment benefits to Britain, but finds only partial success.     

Forecasting Canadian nuclear power station construction costs

Because of the huge volume of capital required to construct a modern electric power generating station, investment decisions have to be made with as complete an understanding of the consequences of the decision as possible. This understanding must be provided by the evaluation of future situations. A key consideration in an evaluation is the financial component. This paper attempts to use an econometric method to forecast the construction costs escalation of a standard Canadian nuclear generating station (NGS). A brief review of the history of Canadian nuclear electric power is provided. The major components of the construction costs of a Canadian NGS are studied and summarized. A database is built and indexes are prepared. Based on these indexes, an econometric forecasting model is constructed using an apparently new econometric methodology of forecasting modelling. Forecasts for a period of 40 years are generated and applications (such as alternative scenario forecasts and range forecasts) to uncertainty assessment and/or decision-making are demonstrated. The indexes, the model, and the forecasts and their applications, to the best of the author's knowledge, are the first for Canadian NGS constructions.     

基建矿井“一通三防”安全管理模式

矿井"一通三防"工作在煤矿安全生产工作中是重中之重,是预防重大安全事故的决定性因素。对于基建矿井而言,"一通三防"系统的投入受现场条件以及工期等因素影响未能及时得到完善,给矿井的安全生产管理带来一定的难度。为了保障基建矿井的安全高效生产,采用了基础管理和科学管理相结合的安全管理模式,即通过辐射培训、强化"两系统"管理和开展专项安全检查不断完善质量标准化保障安全生产;利用科学管理促进安全高效生产。     

浅谈债务转为资本存在的问题及解决对策

债务转为资本是债务重组的方式之一,是指债务人将债务转为资本,同时债权人将债权转为股权的债务重组方式。本文将分析这一重组方式在重组运作过程中存在的问题,并提出一系列的解决对策。     

Emerging From the Cocoon? Revisiting the Tele‐Cocooning Hypothesis in the Smartphone Era

The tele‐cocooning hypothesis posits that mobile communication increases interaction with communication rich ties, while simultaneously weakening interaction with communication weak ties. In this study, we demonstrate how smartphones can be used to mitigate tele‐cocooning behavior by stimulating interaction with communication weak ties. Using a smartphone application to collect non‐identifying mobile communication log data, we conducted a field experiment with 193 Japanese participants. The treatment consisted of onscreen reminders designed to stimulate interaction with communication weak ties. The results indicate that the treatment promoted the activation of communication weak ties and the acquisition of information through those ties, suggesting that smartphones can be utilized to promote access to social capital.     

Gaming Social Capital: Exploring Civic Value in Multiplayer Video Games

Recent research suggests that social interactions in video games may lead to the development of community bonding and prosocial attitudes. Building on this line of research, a national survey of U.S. adults finds that gamers who develop ties with a community of fellow gamers possess gaming social capital, a new gaming‐related community construct that is shown to be a positive antecedent in predicting both face‐to‐face social capital and civic participation.     

基于因果干预与不变性的卷积预训练模型优化研究

基于卷积神经网络（CNN）的深度模型在图像识别与分类领域应用广泛,但在全局特征控制、概念层次特征不变性提取和变量之间的因果关系确定方面仍存在不足,使得深度模型缺乏灵活性、适应性及泛化性。基于因果干预和不变性,提出一种基于CNN深度模型的定向修剪和网络结构优化方法。通过对模型输入进行基于不变性的干预调制,根据生成的调制图片序列分析预训练网络卷积子结构的输出分布,筛选和定向修剪噪声敏感子结构。构建基于类间区分度的目标函数,借助经济学领域中的资本资产定价模型构建网络的层间连接,生成在单分类任务下能增大类间区分度的网络拓扑结构,逐层优化构建概念层次的稳定特征。在ImageNet-2012数据集上的实验结果表明,优化后的深度模型相比于ResNet50基线预训练模型的分类准确率约提升了5个百分点,并大幅降低了训练集规模。     

装备综合预算编制研究

加强装备综合预算编制研究,对于提高装备经费使用效益具有重要的现实意义。阐述了编制装备综合预算的必要性,分析了影响装备综合预算编制的情形,提出了推进编制装备综合预算的措施,即坚持集中下达经费、坚持经费资产统一预算、坚持统一规范管理。